But there was a problem: If OpenAI continued to scale up language models, it could exacerbate the possible dangers it had warned about with GPT-2. Amodei argued to the rest of the company – and Altman agreed – that this did not mean it should shy away from the task. The conclusion was in fact the opposite: OpenAI should scale its language model as fast as possible, Amodei said, but not immediately release it.
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Compounding the danger of a prolonged conflict is the reality of “trapped” spare capacity. While the global market normally relies on spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to buffer against price shocks, Struyven explained that those barrels typically must flow through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global buyers. Consequently, as long as the Strait remains compromised, that spare capacity cannot be physically deployed. Furthermore, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be used as a textbook response to sustained disruptions, the SPR currently holds around 415 million barrels—more than 200 million barrels lower than it was prior to the 2022 energy crisis.